It is now a month since the governorship election in Ekiti State was held. Now with less than three weeks to the governorship election in the State of Osun, Governor Rauf Aregbesola has a lot of lessons to learn from Ekiti 2014. There is no doubt that many issues will seriously be agitating the mind of Aregbesola at the moment. This is especially judging by the fact that the crucial governorship election slated for August 9, 2014 is fast approaching.
Not many will be surprised if for this particular reason, Aregbesola has been having sleepless nights working round the clock to ensure his election victory. Frankly, in his own interest, the governor cannot afford to have his two eyes closed while asleep from now till the election is over. This is because the unexpected can also happen if he fails to watch his back. Put succinctly, Aregbesola should know he cannot afford to take things for granted in view of the recent earth-shaking political hara-kiri in Ekiti State. Aregbesola has a lot to learn from those cardinal factors that directly or indirectly led to the unexpected defeat of Ekiti State Governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi of the All Progressives Congress (APC) by a former Governor of the State, Mr. Ayodele Fayose of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the June 21, 2014 gubernatorial election. It will be in his interest if he re-strategizes by learning from whatever could be termed as the mistakes of Fayemi. He should avoid those political traps that could lead to his defeat in the forthcoming election.
One of the lessons Aregbesola can learn from the unfortunate defeat of Fayemi is that due to the unpredictability of the outcome of elections in Nigeria where politics is not only a do-or-die affair but is also the most lucrative business for corrupt enrichment, the incumbency factor alone may not necessarily guarantee a sitting governor’s victory at the poll. In a nutshell, it will be a colossal political or electoral calamity for Aregbesola if he, like Fayemi, takes the people of Osun or supporters of APC in the state for granted by counting his eggs before they are hatched.
Aregbesola should forthwith drop the unbelievable idea that tumultuous crowds at campaign venues will automatically translate so massive support for him on election day. He should realize that on August 9, 2014, there is the tendency that any of his desperate and corrupt opponents can spring a surprise by swaying the electorate to his side through deft application of irresistible measures. The Osun governor should by now have realized that due to the increasing level of poverty and the alarming rate of illiteracy among Nigerians, those seeking elective offices use money and foodstuff, as well as diabolical means to attract unsuspecting hapless voters to vote for them on election day. The possibility of this happening in Osun on August 9, 2014 cannot be ruled out completely. Right-thinking Nigerians with discerning minds know that since the return of civil rule in the country on May 29, 1999, the political and electoral systems throwing up most of the elective office holders are warped to a very large extent.
This explains why across the country, irrespective of political, religious or ethnic inclinations, most of the elective office holders can aptly be described as square pegs in round holes. And under this pitiable, unfortunate and deplorable situation, the expectation that there will be positive development and progress in deepening democracy will be a mirage.From all indications, the forthcoming governorship election in Osun promises to be the greatest political challenge facing Aregbesola and this will clearly determine his continuing relevance in the current political calculations, especially in the South-West whose position is now facing serious threat from the desperate ruling PDP at the federal level.
It would be recalled that under mysterious circumstance, during the PDP-led administration of former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the well-endowed South-West States (with the exception of Lagos State) were lost by the then ruling Alliance for Democracy (AD) to the PDP in 2003. A few years back, Oyo, Osun, Ogun and Ekiti were States regained by the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) now All Progressives Congress (APC) from the PDP. However, it is worrisome that since then, the PDP has been making frantic efforts to ‘’capture’’ Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Oyo and Ekiti States from the ruling APC. Not many were therefore surprised when after the just-concluded governorship election, the Professor Attahiru Jega-led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared PDP’s Ayodele Fayose the winner and APC’s Kayode Fayemi the loser. Ekiti has since been successfully captured by the all-powerful PDP.
In-line with the inordinate ambition of PDP to capture the entire South-West States eventually, there is no doubt that this poses a serious threat to the enviable position of Aregbesola. After capturing Ekiti, the next South-West State slated to be captured by PDP is Osun where governorship election will soon hold. From all indications, those nightmarish, worrisome and traumatic experiences, including arrest and detention of opposition chieftains, as well as excessive militarization of the electoral process that characterized the Ekiti election will be a tip of the iceberg when compared to what will finally play out in Osun on election day.
President Goodluck Jonathan’s appointment of Senator Musiliu Obanikoro as Minister-of-State for Defence is a strategic move to prepare PDP’s ground for the crucial 2015 general elections with a view to capturing Lagos from APC. For 15 unbroken years, PDP’s desperate efforts to capture Lagos from the opposition have been abortive and this has been of great concern to the federal government which realizes the importance of Lagos as the economic and business capital of Nigeria. As it happened in Ekiti when Obanikoro, the Minister of Police Affairs, Chief Adeshiyan, Uba and some other PDP chieftains were in Ekiti during the election, Aregbesola should prevent his blood pressure from rising when he sees Obanikoro, Adeshiyan, Dayo Adeyeye, Uba and other PDP chieftains in Osun on election day.
Recent visits by prominent Osun indigenes such as the embattled Olagunsoye Oyinlola and Femi Fani-Kayode to President Jonathan in Abuja could be part of the subterranean moves to ensure Iyiola Omisore’s victory and the capture of Osun by PDP. Comparatively, more police, soldiers and other security operatives will be dispatched to Osun as against what was witnessed in Ekiti. To PDP, Osun, like Ekiti, must be captured at all costs. The PDP at both federal and state levels will certainly do some things that are capable of annoying Aregbesola and his aides hoping that any reaction from them would warrant the arrest and detention of some of the governor’s loyalists. Fielding of Fayose as governorship candidate, in spite of the serious corruption charges levelled against him by EFCC was a deliberate move by the PDP. The PDP knew he was the only person that could be used to face an incumbent such as Fayemi. The EFCC barks but cannot bite. At the appropriate quarters, everything will be done to ensure Fayose is sworn in as governor on October 16, 2014 and EFCC’s threat that the governor-elect has a case to answer will end up in the dustbin of history.
Once he is sworn in, Fayose is sure of being in office for the next four years without being prosecuted by virtue of the immunity for governors. Before his impeachment some years back, he was an unrepentant advocate of immunity for governors during which he vowed that if the immunity clause is removed from the constitution he would not seek election for a second term. What will be his reaction to the National Confab’s recommendation that the immunity clause for governors be removed from the constitution? It is noteworthy that PDP has finally realized the cardinal objectives for which it made Fayose its candidate for Ekiti 2014.
Its strategic choice of a former Deputy Governor of Osun State, Senator Iyiola Omisore as its candidate for Osun 2014 must have been well thought out. The PDP perhaps believes that like Fayose in the case of Ekiti, Omisore will, of all the contestants, be the only one that can give a very formidable incumbent such as the indefatigable Aregbesola energy-sapping challenge to ensure victory. There is no doubt that Osun is very dear to the heart of Aregbesola. The National Leader of APC and former Governor of Lagos State, Ashiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, seems to have a sentimental attachment to Osun and for this reason, he will not be happy if Osun is lost soon after the loss of Ekiti to PDP. Further loss of other South-West states to PDP will affect the chances of APC in 2015 presidential election.
In less than a month from now, Osun 2014 will hold. However, the election should not be a do-or-die affair. All contestants should demonstrate the spirit of sportsmanship before, during and after the election. Whoever emerges winner should accept victory with humility while the losers should accept defeat with magnanimity. The contestants and their respective parties should educate their followers concerning the need to conduct themselves responsibly to avert ontoward occurrences capable of destabilizing Osun.
The Federal Government should refrain from using its agencies to intimidate perceived political enemies in Osun while in conjunction with INEC, it should provide the enabling environment for all contestants to operate in order to ensure Osun 2014 is free, fair and credible after all. INEC and the political parties should collaborate to ensure voters are well informed and enlightened concerning their responsibilities before, during and after Osun 2014 which if well conducted by INEC will make Nigerians to be hopeful that the 2015 general elections will be credible.
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